This week I am going to write about a report I read recently. It is a useful piece of research that describes, from a very realistic standpoint, how the workforce will take shape and where working life will be not far from now, just 10 years down the line.
Those who want to read it in detail can find it on the PWC-Workforce of the future/ The competing forces shaping 2030 website.
Why did I like this report? Because almost all the research and reports published over the last 6 months (March–September 2020) have focused specifically on working life. We have constantly been told that working life will change this way or take shape that way. This study, however, alongside working life, also offers a nice projection of where the workforce, in other words we employees and our lives, will end up. For those who would like to benefit from it, I will share a short summary of the notes I took.
So, let’s get started😊
We are going through a fundamental transformation in the way we work.
At the very start of the report, it is underlined that, regardless of the pandemic, even the effect of technological change alone has put us in the midst of a major transformation, and that the pace of change is higher than in any period before it.
For this reason, the report discusses how important it is for companies and organizations to keep up with this change, as well as the definitions that are changing in HR in particular. The definitions of talent, work, the organization, ways of working and the workforce are no longer what they were even a year ago, and they urgently need to be redefined. Along with the changing definitions, another variable is our needs. It is also a fact that organizations will need different talents from now on, and that the question “who is the right talent?” will therefore occupy their agendas a great deal in the coming period. Which brings to mind another question at exactly this point.
How can organizations prepare for a future that few of us can define?
On this question, there is one more big X in front of us. Uncertainty.
No one knows when the world will get back on an even keel, economically or in terms of the pandemic. Even if we do, the recovery of severely contracted economies may take months, even years. As if this were not enough, new unknowns are added every day, and the VUCA world is now right in the middle of our individual lives as well.
In such a socio-economic picture, it is perfectly normal for organizations not to know what to focus on and to be unable to see the economic road ahead, but this is also not a time to sit back and wait for things to calm down. If you remember, the world was formed from a cloud of dust and gas; this time, the cloud of dust and gas will shape a new world, and by the time we notice certain things, it may be too late. To keep that from happening, we have to be ready. But how?
To be prepared for the future, you must first understand it.
The research emphasizes that, to be ready for the future, we first need to understand the “megatrends” well and look more mindfully at how large their impact could be. We have actually been talking about these megatrends for at least 8–10 years, yet I am not so sure how aware of them we really are.
So what are these megatrends?
While trends are currents that influence and sweep along large groups of people, we can say that megatrends are multidimensional currents that affect much larger human communities, countries and states, and create disruptive (not always in a bad sense) and irreversible changes in their lives**. In other words, while a trend is one-dimensional and affects a limited audience, megatrends are multidimensional changes that affect the whole world.**
What really matters, though, is how people will respond to the challenges and opportunities these megatrends bring over the next 10 years, that is, between 2020 and 2030 alone. Because it is precisely this relationship of impact and response that will determine the lives we live and the world we live in.
The research focuses on 5 megatrends. I would have liked to say “now let’s go through each of them in detail,” but since these are topics we have been discussing for many years, I do not think that is necessary. Most of us already know them all. Instead, it may be more fitting to share my own takeaways. Because what really matters is focusing on what needs to be done to manage them properly and the policies that need to be put into practice quickly. That is why I believe this perspective is far more useful.
1. Technological Breakthroughs:
Technology exists to improve our lives and raise our quality of life. But I think it is likely that what it brings could lead to other problems. What needs to be done, and technology policies, must be designed very carefully.
2. Demographic Shifts:
We will live longer, and our experienced (I don’t like the word old😊) population will keep growing. This is a good thing, but while health and care services for our experienced people are a very important issue that needs attention, for experienced people who remain in working life, “continuously developing themselves, especially in technical and digital areas” will become a vital necessity.
On the other hand, in parallel with steadily declining fertility, the importance and expectations of the young, productive, working-age population, which will be much smaller than in the past, and employment policies suited to them, may become far more critical than they are today. Since the fear that artificial intelligence will take our jobs is increasingly becoming the dominant feeling among people, I think the right policies need to be in place here too.
3. Rapid Urbanization:
Let’s talk with some data. By 2030, 4.9 billion people will live in cities. By 2050, 72% of the world’s population will live in cities. Given that big cities and metropolises already have problems many times over, do you think new practices will emerge to keep people away from cities, especially big cities?
Will we start talking about migration from cities to the countryside instead of from the countryside to cities? Or will companies and governments embark on practices that make living and working in smaller towns, rural areas and villages attractive instead of big cities, along with incentive policies to support this?
My answer: why not😊 We will see.
4. Shifts in Global Economic Power:
This is a separate topic that requires economic expertise, but in short we can say this. The balance of economic power in the world has the potential to shift in favor of developing countries. After all, developed countries have various problems stemming from the old economic order that has persisted for many years (unemployment, income inequality, social unrest, unfair distribution of resources and so on), and it looks as though they will have even more. On the other hand, although developing countries face similar problems, we can expect those with large young and working-age populations in particular to be somewhat luckier than the others in this respect.
5. Resource Scarcity and Climate Change:
The depletion of fossil fuels, extreme weather, rising sea levels and water scarcity. Demand for energy and water is projected to increase by 50% and 40% respectively by 2030.
Is there anything else to say on this subject? When we spend half an hour in the shower, or leave the tap running even slightly while brushing our teeth, let’s think about how hard it will be for our children to access clean water in the future.
This article ends here, as I have long since passed my target of 750–800 words; we will pick up where we left off in the next article. We still have to talk about the colorful worlds of the workforce over the next 10 years.
Stay healthy.
